Week 11 NFL: San Diego vs Chicago Predictions, Picks & Odds
The Chicago Bears and the San Diego Chargers are moving in very different directions coming into week 11. The Bears have come back from a slow start to work their back into contention, defeating a handful of quality teams along the way. The Chargers have stumbled and shot themselves in the foot, staggering to a losing record after 10 weeks. So in the week 11 match-up between San Diego and Chicago, will the teams continue on their current courses or will there be a change? Here is my week 11 pick or prediction for the Chargers and Bears based on the current odds posted in Las Vegas.
The Chargers have been known to start slow out of gates year in and year out. But this year was different. They started the season 3-1, and looked to be on pace for a quality season. Since then though the slump set in, and they have lost four games in a row, and five of six. They’re now tied for second place in the miserable AFC West with two other teams, the Broncos and the Chiefs, with the Raiders in first place with a 5-4 record.
Simply put, San Diego is a team whose talent simply never lives up to the expectations. Quarterback Philip Rivers was supposed to have an MVP caliber season, instead he’s been making poor decisions and turning the ball over. The team can’t hold onto close games late, and they seemingly can’t play a full four quarters of football at a time.
The Bears meanwhile started out slowly, but that was in large part due to a very tough opening slate of games, which included playing the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints on the road. Since then, they have won four games in a row to shoot their record up to 6-3. They’re coming off a big win over their division rivals, the Detroit Lions, and they have beaten other playoff hopefuls like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Philadelphia Eagles in their current streak.
The defense has been playing excellently, led by Brian Urlacher, Julius Peppers and Lance Briggs, and the defense has been pointing points up on the board. And the return game continues to be a huge strength with Devin Hester. Meanwhile, Jay Cutler has been getting better protection from the offensive line, and Matt Forte has been putting up huge running and receiving numbers.
The Bears are 3.5 point favorites at home over the incoming chargers. The over/under for the game is at 45 points. Chicago has been overlooked all season long, and they have viewed that as motivation, such as when they were underdogs by more than a touchdown on the road in Philadelphia.
Now, even as favorites, they’ll probably feel slighted again, as they should be bigger favorites at home, and given more respect. The team is hungry, and playing at a high level in all phases right now. The same can’t be said for San Diego. Chicago to win and cover at home, improving their record to 7-3 and placing themselves in excellent position to win a Wild Card berth.
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USC vs Oregon Predictions, Picks & Odds
The biggest game of the college football weekend comes by way of the PAC-12, and it’s the result of the biggest game from last weekend going in an unexpected way. Last week, Oregon upset Stanford, ending their unbeaten season, and putting themselves in the driver’s seat to land a berth to the PAC-12 championship game, and from there, potentially a BCS bowl game. Standing in their way right now is the USC Trojans, quietly an 8-2 team with a top 20 ranking.
USC has flown under the radar this season, and when you’re banned from postseason play, that can certainly tend to happen. Regardless of where they finish, they can’t play in the PAC-12 title game, and they can’t play in a bowl game, which is too bad for them, because they’re a quality football team, with an 8-2 record as mentioned.
They suffered a bad loss early on to Arizona State, but then pushed the still undefeated Stanford Cardinal to three overtimes a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, they have gotten wins over teams like Notre Dame, Cal and Utah. A win for Oregon would be huge for them, and it’s their biggest game of the year without postseason eligibility. A win would upset a rival and put the conference, as well as fans and players throughout the country, on notice for next season and the Trojans return to primetime status in the college football world.
It won’t be so easy to do though on the road playing the Oregon Ducks. The Ducks have won 9 games in a row since losing to LSU in the season opener, toppling Stanford last weekend and feasting on the rest of the conference. They have the number 3 offense in the country with 46.7 points per game, and they rack up nearly 500 yards per outing.
The defense is solid but not spectacular, surrendering 21.7 points per game, for 33rd best in the country. Still, that results in an average margin of victory of 25 points. They are led by quarterback Darron Thomas, and running back LaMichael James, who now appears to be back at full strength.
Looking at the official odds for the game, the USC Trojans are big 15 point underdogs on the road against the Oregon Ducks. That’s out of respect for the Trojans, a winning team and a ranked opponent.
However, the Ducks are in a different class right now. It has been 9 straight games for them in the W column, and they’re healthy and firing on all cylinders right now. They have one of the best home field advantages in the country, and their offense is near unstoppable. Plus, they’re still battling for a BCS berth, and who knows, maybe a rematch against LSU depending on how things shake out. All of that adds up to a big Oregon win at home. Look for the Ducks to win and cover the spread in the process, doing what they can to continue their crazy run back to the top.
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Boston College vs Notre Dame Predictions, Picks & Odds
Notre Dame has scratched and clawed their way back into the rankings for the week. It’s been an up and down year for them in 2011, with very high expectations dashed early on. Things then looked bleak for the club, but since then they have been able to straighten things out and build a bit of momentum. Now, they get to play at home against another opponent they should be able to handle with ease, boosting their record and ranking in the process.
The year began with two straight losses for the Fighting Irish, and things were blowing up in their faces right from the start. First they lost to South Florida, at home, then they lost to Michigan on the road, and before coach Brian Kelly could blink, his team was starting at an 0-2 hole.
After that though, they stepped up and got a big win at home against Michigan State, and strung together four straight wins. Then USC came into town, and they lost to the Trojans. Since then though, they have put together another three big wins, albeit against mediocre to bad opposition. Well, here they get another bad opponent, and another win should be expected as a result.
The BC Eagles are just 3-7 on the year, sitting near the bottom of the ACC. However, to their credit they have won two of their last three games after starting just 1-6, so they have never given up on the year. Their two recent wins have come over NC State and Maryland, although a blowout loss to Florida State was sandwiched in between those. They’ve also lost big this season to Massachusetts, Clemson, Virginia Tech and UCF, some of which are excusable, and some of which really aren’t.
Boston College’s problem is an anemic offensive attack. They rank 105th in the country in passing yards, 81st in rushing yards, 113th in points per game, and 112th in yards per game. With a middle of the pack defense, it hasn’t been near enough to get the job done. Notre Dame meanwhile has modestly strong offenses and defenses, ranking 29th with 33.6 points per game scored, and 27th with 20.9 points per game surrendered.
The Fighting Irish are big 24.5 point favorites over Boston College on Saturday, and a wide margin like that shouldn’t come as a surprise to anybody. The Eagles lost by 27 to Central Florida, 28 to Massachusetts and 31 to Florida State. So losing by at least 25 on the road to Notre Dame isn’t too much of a stretch. Expect the Fighting Irish to cruise in the game and win without any problem.
Winning by 25 points is never guaranteed, and is always a tough sell, but against this BC team it could happen. At the end of the game, Notre Dame will be sitting at 8-3 and will be moving higher up the rankings, even if it has all been the result of feeding off bottom feeders from conferences like the ACC.
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Week 12 CFB: Mississippi State vs Arkansas Predictions, Picks & Odds
Don’t look now, but here come the Arkansas Razorbacks. They are rolling right now, and have a 9-1 record and the number 6 ranking in the country. This week, they have an SEC also-ran coming into town in the form of the Mississippi State Bulldogs. It looks to be another occasion for the Razorbacks to dominate, but in the SEC, you never know what might happen, and every week is a legitimate challenge.
Arkansas has quietly put together one excellent season. Right now, they’ve won six games in a row, including a big win over South Carolina a few weeks ago, and wins over two more tanked teams in Texas A&M and Auburn. Last week they steamrolled Tennessee, and now they’re 9-1 with that nice winning streak.
The problem for them comes from that one loss in the middle of the year. It came at the hands of the Alabama Crimson Tide, who happen to be in their division in the SEC. Now both teams are at 9-1, but Alabama is ahead of them in the standings with that tiebreaker. Worse, the undefeated LSU squad is ahead of both in the division. So the number 6 team in the country is also the number 3 team in its division of its conference… life is tough in the SEC.
That means that even if Arkansas wins out, which means they beat number 1 LSU in the final week of the season, they still would be in second place in the SEC West thanks to that tiebreaker with Alabama, unless the Crimson Tide loses again!
Arkansas is powered by a high-scoring attack, led by quarterback Tyler Wilson. Wilson has thrown for 2,850 yards on the year with 18 TDs and just 5 INTs, completing passes at nearly a 62% clip. The defense has been solid if not spectacular, ranking 30th in the country is points surrendered per game, 21.5.
The Bulldogs are 5-5 on the year, although it should be noted that three of those losses were to ranked teams, including LSU, Alabama and South Carolina, and in none of those games they surrendered more than 24 points. In fact, their defense ranks 17th in the country in points per game allowed, just 19.2.
Mississippi State will be a 13 point underdog against the Razorbacks this weekend, and the game will be held at a neutral site. Considering what each of these teams has done this year, that point spread seems narrow if anything.
The Razorbacks are a hungry team right now, and they’re playing great football with a ton of belief in themselves. They realize they are all but out of the SEC conference championship race, a cruel fate for such a quality team, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t out to make a point. They’re still battling for a BCS berth, and they want to show they belong amongst the finest teams in the nation. That means the Bulldogs don’t have a chance right here. Arkansas to win and win big in a blowout.
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Week 11 NFL Predictions & Picks: Dallas vs Washington
One of the fiercest rivalries in the NFL picks up again in week 11, as the Dallas Cowboys visit the Washington Redskins in an NFC East showdown. These two teams are moving in very different directions right now, and while a few weeks ago this seemed like it could be a marquee match-up, now not so much. The Redskins will be fighting for pride while the Cowboys will be battling for a playoff spot and perhaps a share of the division lead.
The Cowboys began the season very up and down, and every week the play of Tony Romo was the big story, whether he came back to save the day or crashed and burned at the end of the game. Now though, the Cowboys have won two games in a row to move their record above .500 at 5-4, and they sit only one game back of the Giants.
A win against the Redskins would keep the pressure on New York to keep winning as well, and the Giants have a harder slate of remaining opponents to deal with. If the Cowboys win and the Giants lose, then both teams are tied for first place, and the NFC East division is completely up for grabs. So the Cowboys have more at stake than just playing their rivals and looking for a division win.
The Redskins meanwhile have fallen completely off the map. After a 3-1 start, the team has lost five straight games. Over that same period of time, running back Tim Hightower has been lost for the year, quarterback Rex Grossman and John Beck have both taken turns being benched and then playing miserably once they’re given the reins, wide receiver Santana Moss has been missing from the lineup, and more.
So it’s been a lot of injuries to contend with, as well as general poor play and a failure to keep things together on the field. This is new territory for coach Mike Shanahan, and it seems like every weekend his team makes him suffer through something he’s never experienced before in his decades in the league.
Even with the Redskins at home, the Cowboys are 7.5 point favorites. In a divisional game, and a heated rivalry, that tells you a great deal about the state of these two clubs. The over under line for the match is at 41.5 points, a fairly low total thanks to the Redskins defense, which can still play up to a good level even if the offense is inept.
The Cowboys are going to get the win over the Redskins on the road in week 11. They’re too hot right now, and the Redskins have been completely hapless. Will Washington be able to at least keep it close in front of their hometown fans? In a divisional game like this, maybe, so go out on a limb and take the Redskins to beat the spread but the Cowboys to win outright and continue their climb back towards the top of the division and playoff contention.
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College Football Predictions Week 12: Oklahoma vs Baylor
In one of only three games in week 12 between ranked opponents, the Oklahoma Sooners will travel to Baylor to play the Bears. It’s a big game for the Sooners, as they are vying to get themselves back into national title contention, but here are a few things regarding the spread and college football predictions for this game. A win here would set them up for a season ending showdown against Oklahoma State, and a shot at the national title may just be up for grabs for the winner of that game depending on how things shake out. So there’s a lot at stake for them, and Baylor is out to prove itself once again as well.
The Sooners of course were upset by Texas Tech several weekends ago. Since then, they have two wins in a row, a huge win over number 10 Kansas State, and then a win over Texas A&M. With undefeated teams dropping right and left, Oklahoma is back as the number 5 team in the country, with a shot to get back into the top 2 or 3 if they defeat the Cowboys in the season closing game, following a victory here of course.
The offense is dynamic, putting up 45.4 points per game, 6th best in the country, and amassing 545 yards per game, 4th best in the country. The leader is of course quarterback Landry Jones, with his 3,349 passing yards and 28 TDs, completing almost 65% of his passes and throwing just 9 picks. About a third of his productivity goes straight to Ryan Broyles, who has 1,157 yards receiving and 10 touchdown grabs.
Baylor has a 6-3 record and is ranked as the number 25 team in the nation right now. They’ve had a positive year, but one with some up and downs as well. They went on a stretch where they lost 3 of 4 games, to Kansas State, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State. Since then, they’ve put together two wins in a row, although they needed overtime to squeak out a 1 point win over Kansas last weekend.
The Bears are all about their dynamic, off the charts quarterback, Robert Griffin III. Griffin has completed 74% of his passes this season, throwing for 3,093 yards and 29 TDs against only 5 interceptions, sensational numbers by any measure, and equal or superior in every category than his Sooners counterpart. Plus, he has another 478 rushing yards and 5 TDs on the ground as well.
Even at home here, Baylor is a 15 point underdog. What they have shown this season is that they are a good team, but one that has failed when stepping up to the top flight opponents out there. They have one extremely dynamic player, but Griffin can’t carry them every weekend.
The Sooners are on a mission right now to get themselves to that Oklahoma State game with a chance of getting to the BCS title game. So Oklahoma will win, and the only question is whether or not they will cover the spread when making your college football predictions. They have too much at stake to fail to impress in every way, so take the Sooners to win and cover in week 12 against Baylor.
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Week 11 NFL Picks: Bills-Dolphins & Titans-Falcons Predictions
In week 11 of the 2011 NFL season, the docket of games looks to be devoid of any major, truly marquee games. Still, there’s a lot at stake for clubs battling for playoff positioning and divisional supremacy, and there are some intriguing games which could go in either direction. Here’s a look at two games for week 11 that you should get in on the action for against the spread.
Bills at Dolphins (-2)
The Dolphins have put together a nice little two game winning streak after losing their first seven games of the year. The Bills meanwhile are struggling and stumbling right now, and are sitting at 5-4 after they had such a nice start to the year. But the Bills aren’t done yet, and they’re still tied for second place in the division.
They would be done with a loss against Miami here, which would effectively kill their hopes of a playoff berth with two teams ahead of them in the division. The Bills aren’t going to let that happen quite yet. Take the Bills to score the mild upset on the road against the Dolphins, keeping themselves and their playoff aspirations afloat for the time being.
Titans at Falcons (-6)
The Falcons are coming off a tough, close loss to the Saints, and as they have been for most of the season, they’re looking at a must-win type of game if they want to keep themselves in the hunt for an eventual playoff spot. They’re two wins behind the Saints, and they’re right in the middle of the pack when it comes to Wild Card positioning.
The Titans have been quiet this year, but they’re sitting at a respectable 5-4. More important for them, it looks like Chris Johnson is rounding into form, and with Texans quarterback Matt Schaub out for the season, the Titans have to think they can battle back and contend for the division lead. This is going to be a close game, and it could potentially go either way. That means take the Titans against the spread, they’ll keep it close at the least if not win outright.
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Week 11 NFL: NY Jets vs Denver Predictions, Picks & Odds
The Thursday evening game in the NFL for week 11 features the New York Jets heading to Denver to play the Broncos. These teams are much closer in the standings than the Jets and their fans would like to admit, and this is actually a very important game for each club and their postseason hopes. The Jets will have to win in week 11 to stay competitive in the AFC East, while the Broncos can continue battling for a first place spot in the week AFC West with another victory.
It’s the Broncos who are coming into this game as the hotter of the two teams, surprisingly. Tim Tebow has led the Broncos to a 3-1 record since he took over the starting role, and the Broncos have won two games in a row right now. Of course, last weekend the Broncos defeated the Kansas City Chiefs while Tebow completed just two passes and threw only eight.
It’s mind-boggling, but the Broncos are winning in the meantime, so good for them and good for Tebow. Suddenly, the Broncos are 4-5 and just a game back of first in the miserable AFC West standings. There’s no hope for a Wild Card team to come out of the division, so if a team here wants to make the playoffs, they’ll need to win the divisional crown.
The Jets are coming off a tough loss to the New England Patriots at home. They fought the Patriots close in the first half and then got blown out of the water in the second, losing big. Now, their season is on the brink. They sit at 5-4, one game behind the Patriots, but New England also has the tiebreaker. They’re tied with the Bills for second in the division, and there are two teams ahead of them and another two tied with them for the two Wild Card spots. So, they have to start winning and putting together a streak or they’re going to be in trouble.
The Jets are favored by a spread of 6 points on the road, even though it’s a very short week for them and they have to jam in practice and cross-country travel by Thursday. The over/under for the game is at 41 points.
This game is pretty easy to analyze. Rex Ryan, Darrelle Revis, Bart Scott and the rest of the big names on the Jets defense would never be able to live with themselves if they allow Tebow to get a win over them while playing in the style and putting up the numbers that he has been. They aren’t going to let him get away with what he has been, and they’ll cook up some special schemes for him which should shut him down.
Not only that, but as mentioned, the Jets really need this win, and don’t want to lose another game in primetime in the span of five days. The Jets will win on the road and cover the spread over the Broncos, shutting down Tebow and continuing to stay in the thick of the race for a Wild Card slot.
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North Carolina vs Virginia Tech Predictions, Picks & Odds
Virginia Tech is back on Thursday night this week, and the Hokies are also back in the top 10. With five wins in a row and an overall 9-1 record, the team has fought their way back into contention for a potential BCS berth. The conference championship game seems locked up, and once there, they are likely to get a rematch against the only team that beat them this year, Clemson. Here’s a look at the North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech game this Thursday evening.
As mentioned the Hokies are back in the top 10, and back atop the Coastal division of the ACC. Last week they got the biggest win of their season so far, taking out a ranked Georgia Tech team on the road. It’s their only win over a ranked opponent on the year to date, and will remain as such until and if they win the ACC championship game and a potential BCS bowl game after that.
The team is led by their defense, which ranks 8th in the country in points per game allowed, at 16.5, and 11th in yards allowed, at 302.5. In charge of the offense is quarterback Logan Thomas, who has thrown for 2,100 yards and 14 TDs against 7 INTs this season. He’s also rushed for another 355 yards and 8 touchdowns, but running back David Wilson is the main threat on the ground, putting up 1,360 yards and 7 TDs so far on the year.
Considering all of the distractions and problems for the Tar Heels before the season began, sitting at 6-4 at this point in the season isn’t all too bad. The problem for them though has been their in-conference record, as all of their losses have come in the ACC and they are just 2-4 against those opponents. They have lost three of their last four games, with the only win coming against Wake Forest, ruining a 3-0 start to the season which gave the club some real hope.
The Hokies are 10.5 point favorites at home on Thursday night, welcoming UNC into Blacksburg. While they look to be a lock to get into the ACC title game, it’s not all said and done just yet. Second place in the Coastal division is Virginia, and the Hokies close their season against them. So an unexpected loss here could put the division and the championship game berth at stake.
So Virginia Tech will be plenty fired up, even coming in after a big road win over Georgia Tech. They are a confident team right now and should be ready to go and continue working their way higher up the rankings. So at the end of the night, it will be another 10 win season for Frank Beamer and his Hokies, with another ACC title within their grasp, all the better since they’ll have a shot to get it against Clemson, the only team to defeat them this year.
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