NFL Playoff Picks, Predictions & Odds
The NFL divisional playoff round is often touted as the single best weekend of football all throughout the year. That’s because you get four playoff games, and you get to see all of the top teams remaining in action at once. Last weekend was a fun one for football fans, but this one should be even better. Here’s a quick look at all four games on the docket in the divisional round of the 2012 NFL playoffs.
New Orleans -3.5 At San Francisco
The Saints are small favorites on the road to defeat the San Francisco 49ers. This is a classic offense vs. defense match. Of course, the Saints are also much more proven in the postseason, having won the Super Bowl two seasons ago, and destroying Detroit last weekend. The 49ers will be looking to prove that they haven’t been a fluke all season, and deserve to be right where they are. New Orleans won’t score 40 points, but they’ll score enough to outdo the 49ers, while forcing Alex Smith into a few costly mistakes. Take the Saints.
At New England -13.5 Denver
The Patriots are huge favorites over the incoming Denver Broncos and the Tim Tebow hype machine. The Patriots went to Denver and won on the road during the season, and this time they’ll of course have home field advantage. Denver is riding high though after their crazy overtime win over the Steelers, but did they set themselves up for a letdown coming off that high? The Patriots are a better team, and they should get the win. But two touchdowns is way too much to take, so bet on the Broncos to beat the spread.
At Baltimore -7.5 Houston
Baltimore is a big favorite at home over the Texans. These two played in Baltimore earlier this season, and the Ravens got the job done then. That was when the Texans were still playing with a first string quarterback, and not a third string one. Baltimore is too good, and especially too good at home, to let the Texans come in and advance. Baltimore to win, but don’t be surprised if the Texans keep this one closer than the first match was, and beat the spread. They have proven to be a resilient team with a lot of fight in them, so it might be close until the end.
At Green Bay -7.5 NY Giants
The defending Super Bowl champions, led by likely MVP Aaron Rodgers, are of course favored over the New York Giants. Everyone is talking about the Giants that won the Super Bowl a few years ago, and how they went to Green Bay as underdogs and got a huge win before winning it all. Rodgers won’t throw the game away like Brett Favre did in overtime, and the Packers want to justify a 15-1 season by continuing to win. Take the Packers at home to win, but the Giants and Eli Manning to keep it close and beat the spread.
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Pittsburgh vs Denver Picks, Predictions & NFL Playoff Odds
The Pittsburgh Steelers vs. the Denver Broncos isn’t a playoff game that many would have forecasted to be on the docket for the first weekend of the AFC playoffs in the beginning of the year. That’s especially the case when you consider the fact that the Broncos, as division winners, get the right to host the game, while the 12-4 Steelers are a Wild Card team and have to be on the road. But that’s what we have lined up for us, and here’s a quick overview to the game.
Probably the biggest storyline of the season has of course been Tim Tebow. Everything has been about Tebow and what he has and has not been able to do on the field. He started off amazingly hot, and got the Broncos to an 8-5 record after they started without him at a lowly 1-4. He didn’t put up great stats, but what he did was figure out a way to win the game with some magic and leadership in the final quarter.
But over the last three weeks, much of that magic has went away, and the Broncos have lost their final three games to finish even at 8-8. Still, it was enough to win the division as both the Chargers and Raiders finished with the same record, and Denver held the tiebreakers.
The Steelers meanwhile had another season basically up to their standards. They won 12 games, and their offense was powered by Ben Roethlisberger and the passing game more than the running game, for a change. That’s a good thing now, because running back Rashard Mendenhall is out with a knee injury. So Roethlisberger and his receivers will have even more of the burden to get the job done.
Winning 12 games and being a road team in the playoffs is a tough pill to swallow, but they finished second in the AFC North behind rival Baltimore. The Ravens swept the season series with them and therefore held the tiebreaker advantage. Therefore, they get the week off to rest and recover, while Pittsburgh travels to Mile High to fight to play for another week.
This is a betting line you won’t often see. The road team in an NFL playoff game is the favorite, and a big favorite, by 8.5 points. The over/under for the game is projected at a very low level, just 34 points, thanks to both teams having a strong defense and the Denver offense looking at times to be so incapable.
It’s no secret to anyone that the Steelers are the better team here, and the much better one. They finished with a better record by four games, they have the experienced, talented players they need to win in the postseason, and they’ve done it all before. The Broncos will need a huge dose of Tebow magic, mixed in with a stiff defensive effort against a team without its best running back. It won’t be enough, and the Steelers will look strong as they get rid of the AFC West champions.
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NFL Playoff Picks: Atlanta vs New York Giants Wild Card Predictions
In the NFL, so much of a team’s success is about momentum and state of mind. Sometimes, you can put things like records and past struggles behind you when you really start to click. That’s what the New York Giants and their fans are hoping for here, as the G-Men get to host the Wild Card Atlanta Falcons in an NFC playoffs match up in the opening weekend of postseason action for the year.
The Giants got off to their usual fast start to the year, only to begin their usual second half slump. It wasn’t all their fault, they had a rash of injuries, and they had an extremely daunting schedule which simply kept them down. When things got bad, they started to snowball, however, the team found a way to win three of their final four games to win the NFC East and get a playoff berth. Those three wins include two over the rival Dallas Cowboys, and one over the rival New York Jets.
Eli Manning has quietly had a phenomenal season, putting up gaudy statistics that in any other season would be amazing, but in 2011 simply put him behind the company of Rodgers, Brees and Brady. Manning can give some thanks to the dynamic, emergent threat that came out of nowhere, Victor Cruz. Cruz took the league by storm this season, finishing with some amazing stats, including some all-time Giants records and some NFL bests for the year.
But if the Giants really want to succeed in the postseason, it’s up to their running game and their passing defense. They’ve had problems with both all year long, and they have been able to overcome them when they win. When they lose, the problems bog them down and they can look very bad in a hurry.
The Falcons meanwhile started off slowly, but then rebounded and began to pick up steam for themselves. They finished with 10 wins, better than the Giants, but were second fiddle to the high powered New Orleans Saints in their own division. They come in hungry though, looking for the first playoff win for Matt Ryan, and more astonishingly, the first playoff win for future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez. They have to go to New York and the cold weather at Met Life stadium to get the job done though, and it will be easier said than done.
The Giants enter the game as 3 point favorites, with the over-under combined points line being set at 47 points. So will the Giants hold home court, or will the Falcons get a landmark win for some of their key guys?
In the Atlanta dome, the Falcons would be a lock in this game. But that’s not where they’re playing. They have to combat the elements, the opposing fans, and the Giants fired up team which is riding high right now. It’s going to be a close game that could hinge on one or two plays, but with Manning and Cruz, and Jason Pierre-Paul, the G-Men will make those plays.
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NFL Playoff Picks: Cincinnati vs Houston Wild Card Predictions
Probably the game that has generated the least interest nationally in the first weekend of the NFL playoffs, it’s the Cincinnati Bengals visiting the Houston Texans in an AFC Wild Card match. Houston has arrived in the postseason for the first time in franchise history, and they enter as AFC South champions. The Bengals made it into the postseason as the second Wild Card squad, surpassing all of the expectations set for them and their year. Here’s a look at what to expect with this playoff match in Wild Card weekend.
No matter what you think of these two teams and their credentials, one of them will have a chance to win a playoff game and survive until the divisional round at the least. For the Texans, it’s the first time ever being in the playoffs, and even better, they won their division and they get to host that game. However, this surely isn’t how they were expecting the story to go once they finally got here.
They lost their talented quarterback Matt Schaub, which was bad enough, and then they lost his backup, Matt Leinart. So they’re down to their third string quarterback, a rookie quarterback guiding the franchise in its first ever playoff game. They have lost Mario Williams to injury, Andre Johnson has missed half the year with injury, and they’re banged up everywhere. But here they are, and the team that’s on the field will have to capitalize on their opportunities.
For the Bengals, nobody was expecting anything out of them in 2011. They were starting a rookie QB in Andy Dalton, and they were without some of the big name players who starred on the team for the past decade. However, they came out strong right out of the gates. While they fell off in the second half of the season, and stumble into the postseason, they were still good enough to get in, thanks to teams like the New York Jets ending the season on bad streaks.
Houston gets this game at home, and they’re three point favorites in this match. The over/under for the game is at 38.5 points, a low total, and a nod to the strong defenses of both teams, as well as the struggling offenses of both teams over the final portion of the season. So who will get the W and the chance to play for another week?
You feel bad for Houston, finally crossing that barrier and making the postseason, only to get there without so many of their best players. Still, the crowd is going to be extra rowdy for this one, hungry to enjoy the postseason, and the Bengals aren’t exactly killers, either. Take the Texans to win this game at home and survive for another day. Anything can happen and neither of these two teams is a great one. That said, The Texans get to play at home, and they have the more talented lineup from top to bottom even without a few of their best guys being out there.
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NFL Playoff Picks: Detroit vs New Orleans Wild Card Predictions
In a game that promises to be high powered and fun to watch, the New Orleans Saints host the Detroit Lions in an NFC Wild Card match-up. The Saints enter the game as perhaps the hottest team in the entire NFL, while the Lions are simply hungry to be back in the postseason with a strong club after such a long period of poor performance on the field. Will Drew Brees put up another spectacular show to lead his Saints to victory?
Brees rewrote the record books this season for NFL quarterbacks, finishing with an amazing 5,476 passing yards. He completed a crazy high 71.2% of his passes, and threw for 46 touchdowns against only 14 interceptions. He was phenomenal all season long, and the Saints look to be killers right now, winners of their last eight straight games. They’re also undefeated at home on the year, finishing at 8-0, and they seem to be unstoppable in the Superdome in New Orleans.
That’s bad news for Detroit, which has shown this season that they are a very good team with a lot of strengths, but seem to be a rung below the upper echelon, teams like the Saints, the 49ers and the Packers. It’s not like the offense can’t do their own damage though. Matthew Stafford stayed healthy in 2011 and threw for more than 5,000 yards himself, as well as 41 touchdowns against 16 interceptions, putting himself in the discussion, although not quite the level, of Brees and the New Orleans attack.
If Detroit wants to win though, they can’t just trade touchdowns with Brees and company, because that’s a losing strategy. They’ll need their defense to make some huge plays, which means they’ll need a huge game out of the likes of Ndamukong Suh. Suh of course can be a wrecking ball, and he’ll need to be to try to slow down Brees a least a little bit. If he can put some big hits on Brees and disrupt the passing game, he can give the Lions a chance. Then Stafford can try to take the lead with the beastly Calvin Johnson, as the two continue to put on their own show just about every week of the season.
Looking at the official numbers for the game, the Saints are favored by 10.5 points at home over the Lions. The over/under for the contest is at a ridiculous 59 points, and it won’t be surprising to see the total end up way higher than that, too.
These two played not too long ago, and the Saints won the game at home by two touchdowns. Not much has changed since then, but the Lions are hungry and desperate to make a strong showing of themselves in the postseason. That will be enough to get them to beat the spread, but it won’t be enough to get them to beat the Saints. Take New Orleans and Brees to hold out and win what’s sure to be a fast-paced shootout.
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NFL Wild Card Predictions, Picks & Odds
They’re finally here, the NFL playoffs. The regular season has concluded and it was an exciting, topsy-turvy thrill ride all the way until the end. Now though it’s time for the real good stuff, and Wild Card weekend certainly has some intriguing games lined up. Here’s a quick look at all four games as the NFL playoffs get underway here in the first full weekend of 2012.
At Houston -3 Cincinnati
The Houston Texans won the AFC South, and for the privilege they get to host one of two AFC Wild Card teams from the North, the Cincinnati Bengals. Neither of these two teams is coming in very strong, but at least they get matched up with one another, and therefore one of them has to have the chance to move on. The Texans are losers of three straight, and of course have lost both of their top two QBs. The Bengals are also just 2-3 in their last five, but they sneaked into the playoffs thanks to teams like the Jets falling off the map. The Texans are the more complete team, even with the injuries, and they’re at home. Take Houston to win.
At New Orleans -10.5 Detroit
The Saints have been scorching hot, and they look to be one of the best teams in the league right now. They won their final 8 games of the season, and they also finished the year undefeated at home, one of only three teams to do so. Drew Brees had one of the best seasons for a quarterback ever, and he’ll be looking to continue his hot streak. Matt Stafford and company can put up their own huge numbers, and they have the defensive front to pressure Brees. But ultimately, the Saints are just too good. New Orleans to win, but take Detroit to beat the spread.
At NY Giants -3 Atlanta
Neither squad here looks like a world beater, however, both have a great opportunity in this game. The Giants won their final two games of the year to win the NFC East and get to host a playoff match, and the Falcons clawed their way back into the playoffs after a slow start, and simply couldn’t overtake the hot Saints in their own division. New York believes in themselves right now, and Matt Ryan hasn’t gotten over the hump to win in the playoffs yet. It doesn’t change here, take the Giants to win a close game.
Pittsburgh -8.5 At Denver
You don’t often see a road team on the playoffs being favored by more than a touchdown, but that’s the scenario here. Love them or hate them, the Denver Broncos won the AFC West. The Steelers will be without their star running back, but all of the other usual suspects will be on the field, whether you prefer Ben Roethlisberger or James Harrison. The Steelers are a much better team, and therefore, they’ll get the win here. Don’t be surprised if the Broncos beat the spread though.
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Orange Bowl Predictions, Picks & Odds
Not the sexiest of the BCS bowls, the 2012 Orange Bowl will feature a showdown between Big East champion West Virginia, number 23 with a 9-3 record on the year, against ACC champion Clemson, number 14 with a 10-3 record coming into the game. These are surprisingly similar teams judging by some of their stats, so which will emerge with an Orange Bowl BCS win?
Clemson started the season off on fire, winning their first 8 games to be one of the last undefeateds left in the nation. However, they would lose three of their final five games. The last win though was a huge one, as they took out the then number 5 Virginia Tech Hokies in a rout for the ACC title, their second win over the Hokies in the year. They also beat ranked Auburn and Florida State squads, to add to their impressive list of victories.
Their offense is led by quarterback Tajh Boyd, who threw for over 3,500 yards on the season, with 31 TDs and just 10 INTs. With Boyd at the helm, Clemson scored 33.6 points per game, 25th best in college football. The defense didn’t fare quite so well, allowing 26.2 points per game, right in the absolute middle of the pack, 62nd best in the nation.
West Virginia meanwhile slumped in the middle of the year after starting quickly, and then ending strongly. They went 3-3 during that stretch, although one loss was to LSU, and you can’t fault them too much for that. They outlasted their Big East competition to win out the conference via tiebreakers, with the major win coming on the road against number 23 Cincinnati.
Their offense is all about the pass with Geno Smith, who threw for almost 4,000 yards on the year, with 25 TDs and 7 INTs. The offense ranked 8th in passing yards on the year, but a measly 100th in rushing yards, and they put up 34.9 points per game, good for 20th in the nation. Like Clemson, their defense is dead mediocre, giving up 26.3 points per game, 63rd best in the nation.
By the numbers, Clemson is the favorite to win the ball game, and they’re going off at -3.5 point favorites. On a straight bet, Clemson is available at -165, and West Virginia at +145. The over/under for the game is at 60.5 points, a relatively high number thanks to both teams having potent offenses but average defenses.
All season long, Clemson has been considered the better team of the two. However, they come into this contest relatively cold, while West Virginia has won three straight, close, must-win games to get to this point. Take the Mountaineers to keep that magic alive, and score a mild upset to win the Orange Bowl.
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Alabama vs. LSU Rematch: Who will win the BCS Championship game
It’s the rematches of all rematches for the BCS championship game. It’s the Alabama Crimson Tide, the number 2 team in the country, against the LSU Tigers, the number 1 team in the country. These two SEC rivals played earlier in the year, putting on a low scoring, close and hard fought defensive struggle of a game, in which LSU of course emerged victorious. But who will win the game that counts the most, the national title game?
LSU has had one of the best seasons in the history of college football, and certainly the modern era of the game. They went 13-0, and they defeated 8 ranked teams. That includes two games against the then number 3 schools in the country, Oregon and Arkansas, and a win over the then and still number 2 school in the country, Alabama.
Only three of those games were played at home, and they defeated the Pac-12 champions and the Big East champions amongst their SEC brethren. In the BCS standings right now, they hold wins over the number 2, 5 and 6 teams. It’s just astonishing, and they’ve done it through utter domination on defense, a strong and balanced offensive team that came together, and special teams success. Les Miles has pulled out all the stops and done all the right things to guide this team through a murderous schedule and have them emerge undefeated and strong.
Nick Saban and Alabama are certainly no slouches. They are ranked 1st in defense in the country, giving up just 8.8 points per game. They have four wins over ranked teams, and their only setback was that 3 point loss to the Tigers back in November.
They have revenge on their minds, and could not be happier that they are getting a second crack at LSU. Don’t forget, they missed field goals in that game and made other blunders that allowed LSU to sneak away with a win that Saban and company believes they deserved instead. It doesn’t hurt they have the potential Heisman Trophy winner in Trent Richardson toting the ball, and future NFL players all across the field.
Looking at the official odds for the game, LSU comes into the contest as a slim 1 point favorite. The over/under for the game is at 39 points, and that seems pretty high considering the two lockdown defensive units that these clubs have, and the first game they played against one another. So regardless of who you like, take the under there.
But as to the winner of the contest, you simply cannot go against the Bayou Bengals. LSU has done too much this season, and has played their best in all of their big games. They know they beat Alabama when the odds were stacked against them on the road, and on neutral turf, with an undefeated season for the ages on the line, they’ll get another close win, although it’s sure to be harrowing at times.
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Sugar Bowl Predictions, Picks & Odds
The 2012 Sugar Bowl features a match-up that is flying under the radar a bit. The number 13 Michigan Wolverines, 10-2 on the year, will take on the number 17 Virginia Tech Hokies, 11-2 on the year. The 2012 Sugar Bowl has been criticized because higher ranking teams from Boise State and Kansas State weren’t chosen to play. Nonetheless, it’s a worthwhile game between two high ranking teams, and it should be a close and hard fought match.
Michigan really surprised a lot of people this year to do as well as they did in their first season under Brady Hoke. They got the job done on both sides of the ball, scoring 34.2 points per game, 22nd best in college football, while tightening down on defense and allowing only 17.2 points per game, 8th best in football.
Hoke deserves the credit for turning that defense around completely, but that offense still needs to pay homage to Rich Rodriguez. It’s his player, after all, in Denard Robinson who makes things work on their attack. He passed for more than 2,000 yards and ran for another 1,150, and had a combined 34 TDs through the air and with his legs.
Virginia Tech had an up and down season. They were up against everyone, except for conference rival Clemson, who beat them twice, and it wasn’t close on either occasion. The Hokies beat everyone else they played though to finish with 11 wins on the year. As is the case with any Frank Beamer football club, it’s about defense and special teams. The defense ranks 7th best in the nation, giving up 17.2 points per game. The offense is much more mediocre, and is stronger on the ground than through the air.
Taking a look at the official odds and lines for the game, the Wolverines are slight 2.5 point favorites over the Hokies. You can bet on the game straight up and get the Wolverines at -140 and the Hokies at +120. The over/under line for the game is at 51 points, and with these two defenses, you’d be wise to take the under.
Michigan is the more complete football team. You can say that the Hokies just lost to Clemson twice because it’s a bad match-up for them, and that might be true. But Clemson is also simply the best team they played all season. The Wolverines aren’t elite, but they have the most dynamic player on the field in Robinson, and a defense that won’t let them fall out of it. Take Michigan to win the game and cover the small spread, capping off an exceptional first season for the new head man of the Wolverines, Brady Hoke.
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