The Detroit Lions will be going to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome to play against the New Orleans Saints at home this Sunday at 1:00 PM EST. The lines opened with a 51 point total that has since dropped by half a point and a 3 point spread for the Saints to cover that has since climbed by a point and a half. The betting is going completely against New Orleans however, with 64% for Detroit and only 36% backing the Saints.
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The Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye-week, 4-1 in their last 5 Week 6 games, and 3-7 in their last 10 games vs. NFC, overall, and on field-turf. Their O/U trends stand at 0-4 in their last 4 games following a bye-week, 4-1 in their last 5 Week 6 games, 7-22 in their last 29 games on the road, and 5-11 in their last 16 games overall. They also stand 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Saints. On the other side, New Orleans is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye-week, 8-2 in their last 10 Week 6 games and their last 10 games following an ATS win, and 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. NFC. Their O/U is 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. NFC, 4-0 in their last 4 games on field-turf, 6-1 in their last 7 games overall, and 9-1 in their last 10 games following a bye-week.
Detroit failed to improve last week against Carolina and instead dropped to 3-2 after their 27-24 defeat. In that game, Matthew Stafford threw for 23 of 35 successful passes for 229 yards and 2 touchdowns while converting more 1st downs 16-19 and outrushing them 28-50. The Saints are won their last game and went 2-2 after spanking Miami 20-0 back in Week 4 before having their bye-week. In that game, Drew Brees connected on 29 of 41 throws for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns. They also outgained the Dolphins 347-186, outrushed them 86-58, and twice as much 1st down conversions 22-11.
Our Free NFL Pick: Both of these teams are about the same on both the defense and offense with maybe the slight edge going to New Orleans. With the small spread of 4.5 points, I’ll go against the bettors and say that the Saints can cover it.