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Free NFL Picks: Buffalo Bills vs L.A. Chargers Predictions 11/19/17

The Buffalo Bills will be heading to the StubHub Center to play against the L.A. Chargers this Sunday evening at 4:05 PM EST. The lines opened with a 4 point spread for the Chargers to cover and a game total of 44 points. Since then, the game total has dropped by half a point while the spread has climbed by half a point. The betting is going in favor of the Bills with a 55-45 split against L.A. covering the spread.

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The Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 Week 11 games, 1-4-1 in their last 6 games following an ATS loss, 1-5-1 in their last 7 November games, 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record, 10301 in their last 5 games overall, and 5-2-1 in their last 8 games following a loss of more than 14 points. Their O/U trends are 1-4 in their last 5 road games, 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss and an ATS loss, 4-0 in their last 4 games overall, 8-3 in their last 11 games vs. AFC and vs. a team with a losing record, and 5-1 in their last 6 November games. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November and games overall, 3-9-1 in their last 13 games on the grass, 7-19 in their last 26 home games, and 2-7-1 in their last 10 games following a loss. Their O/U is 0-3-1 in their last 4 games following an ATS win, 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. AFC, 0-4 in their last 4 games overall, 1-5 in their last 6 games on the grass, and 3-11-1 in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. They also stand 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Bills.

The Bills drop to 5-4 after losing 47-10 to the Saints last Sunday. In that game, Nathan Peterman completed 7 of 10 passes for 79 yards and 1 touchdown with LeSean McCoy making 8 carries for 49 yards and Kelvin Benjamin making 3 catches for 42 yards. The Chargers also lost their last game 20-17 OT against Jacksonville last Sunday, with Philip Rivers completing 21-37 passes for 235 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick. Austin Ekeler led the rushing with 10 carries for 42 yards and he also led the receivers with 5 catches for 77 yards and both touchdown-passes from Rivers.

Our Free NFL Pick: Rivers is currently placed as optional in the game while the Bills said recently that Tyrod Taylor will be the starting QB for the Bills for the remaining of the season. This means that Buffalo will have their best offence throughout this game, even if the addition of Kelvin Benjamin did not bring as many points they expected last game against the Saints. LB Denzel Perryman has also made his return from an ankle injury last Sunday and will be expected to play in this game as well which means the Chargers’ defence will be more difficult come game-day here. Still, I personally believe that the Bills’ loss was mainly because of the Saints’ coverage deeper tactic that forced Taylor to rely on certain receivers – that was why he was subbed for Peterman. The Chargers’ defence, by contrast, isn’t that good and Taylor being signed on as starting QB for the rest of the season means they have faith in him to grow and become better. Take the Bills.


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