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Free NFL Picks: New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Predictions 12/11/17

Next Monday night at 8:30 PM EST, the New England Patriots will be taking on the Miami Dolphins at home in the Hard Rock Stadium. The lines opened with a 12 point spread for the Patriots to cover and a posted total of 48.5 points. Since then, the spread has dropped by a point while the posted total has dropped by a point and a half. At the moment, the bettors are backing the Patriots to cover that spread with 38% against and 62% for.

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The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 December games, 9-0 in their last 9 games on the grass, 13-3 in their last 16 road games, 4-1 in their last 5 Week 14 games, 6-2-1 in their last 9 Monday-night games, 17-5 in their last 22 games following an ATS win, and 20-8 in their last 28 games vs. AFC. Their O/U trends are 2-10 in their last 12 games on the grass, 1-4 in their last 5 road games and December games, 2-6 in their last 8 overall games, 2-5 in their last 7 games following a win, and 5-2 in their last 7 Week 14 games. They also stand 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Dolphins in Miami.

The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 December games, 8-3-1 in their last 12 games following an ATS win, 0-8 in their last 8 Monday games, 0-3-1 in their last 4 games vs. AFC East, and 1-4-2 in their last 7 overall games. Their O/U trends are 7-0 in their last 7 overall games, 5-0 in their last 5 December games, vs. AFC, and games on the grass, 4-0 in their last 4 home games, 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. AFC East, and 8-2 in their last 10 Monday games.  The two teams also share an O/U trend of 5-2 in their last 7 meetings.

The Patriots go 10-2 after stomping the Buffalo Bills 23-3 last Sunday with Tom Brady completing 21 of 30 passes for 258 yards and a pick. They outgained the Bills 435-268 total yards, dominated on ball possession with 34:01 on the clock, and had more 1st down conversions with 23 first downs to the Bills’ 16. The Dolphins also improve after winning last week 35-9 against Denver and going 5-7 for the season. Jay Cutler completed 18 of 31 passes for 235 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions while Kenyan Drake led the ground with 23 rushes for 120 yards and a touchdown and Kenny Stills led the receivers with 5 catches for 98 yards and a touchdown.

Our Free NFL Prediction: Xavien Howard’s 30-yard interception return touchdown was but one part of the dominating defense the Dolphins showed last Sunday against the Broncos and if they can bring that here, they can really cause some trouble for the Patriots. On the other hand, the Patriots’ victory with a dominating show all-around; although, TE Rob Gronkowski lost his cool and pile-drove his shoulder in the back of CB Tre’Davious White’s head who was already on the ground. The action will see the tight-end suspended for this game and is the only real missing person here. The Dolphins are similar with CB Cordrea Tankersley questionable after suffering a shoulder injury and for the most part, the teams are both fine otherwise. The really important thing to note, however, is that these two played already just two weeks earlier with New England dominating them 35-17, so it will be interesting to see what Miami can come up with this time around – especially if that defense from last Sunday comes again. That being said, I’m sure the Patriots have already looked into changing up their strategies for this game the 2nd time around and with that said, I’d take the Patriots to cover.

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