The Minnesota Vikings will be heading to the Lincoln Financial Field this Sunday to face the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Conference Championship at 6:40 PM EST. The lines opened with a posted total of 38 points, which has since changed to 38.5 points; and a spread of 3.5 points for Minnesota to cover, which has not changed since. The betting is very close on this one, almost a perfectly even split, with 49% favoring the Vikings to cover and 51% going against them in favor of Philadelphia.
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The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, 8-3 in their last 11 games following a win, and2-5 in their last 7 playoff road games. Their o/U trends are 1-4 in their last 5 playoff road games, 2-5 in their last 7 January games, and 7-20 in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record. They also stand 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Eagles in Philadelphia.
The Eagles are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the grass, 11-4 in their last 15 games vs. NFC, and 1-4 in their last 5 playoff games. Their O/U trends are 1-9-1 in their last 11 playoff home games, 2-6 in their last 8 overall games, and 3-1-1 in their last 5 Conference Championship games. The two teams also share an O/U trend of 0-4 in their last 4 meetings when playing in Philadelphia.
Minnesota made a miraculous last-second victory last Sunday against New Orleans to beat them 29-24. Case Keenum completed 25 of 40 passes for 318 yards, a score, and a pick while Latavius Murray led the ground with 19 carries for 50 yards and a score and Stefon Diggs stole the show with 6 receptions for 137 yards and the game-winning touchdown in the final play of the game. Philadelphia won their NFC Divisional Round as well last Saturday against the Atlanta Falcons 15-10 with Nick Foles going 23-30 for 246 yards. Jay Ajayi led the ground with 15 carries for 54 yards while Alshon Jeffery led the receivers with 4 receptions for 61 yards.
Our Free NFL Pick: Minnesota’s victory was truly a miraculous thing. Within the final two minutes, the lead changed hands twice in that game; first, with the Vikings looking to secure the victory and then, with New Orleans looking to do it. And that’s saying something considering that the Vikings’ defence dominated the Saints’ offence for the majority of the game. Drew Brees, possibly the most accurate QB ever in the league, was picked off twice in the game in the same quarter. The Saints even resorted to using some tricky plays by having Brees pitch a lateral pass to Willie Snead who then threw it deep down-field to Alvin Kamara in a play that nearly resulted in quite the explosive and flashy touchdown. In the final twenty seconds, it seemed all but over as the Saints secured a field goal and with it, a one-point lead. The last-ditch pass from Keenum to Diggs was done and Marcus Williams, who should’ve made the game-winning tackle on Diggs, completely missed the receiver and made the tackle miles off-target while Diggs was still in the air making the catch. When he came down and saw no one left to beat, the Vikings made their touchdown with ease and secured their win. As for the Eagles, their victory came with Foles showing some good drives against a lacklustre Falcons, and Elliott securing three field goals. Their defence also looked strong with Nigel Bradham, Fletcher Cox, and Rodney McLeod pressuring Matt Ryan. In this game, however, it will likely be a lot more difficult as the defence of the Vikings have proven themselves to be quite formidable if they can steal picks from Brees. This will likely be a game of defence as it’ll come down to how well each performs and how many mistakes Keenum and Foles avoid on the attack. I say take the Eagles however as Keenum struggled a lot under the Saints’ pass-rush and the Eagles’ pass-rush is better than theirs.