This coming Sunday, the Super Bowl LII will be taking place at the U.S. Bank Stadium at 6:30 PM EST between the Philadelphia Eagles underdogs and the reigning champions, the New England Patriots. The lines opened since last week and are now sitting at a 4.5 point spread and a 48 point posted total. The betting has changed slightly since then as well with 63% of the bettors going against the Patriots to cover the spread and 37% backing them to do so.
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The Eagles are 9-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 6-2 in their last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in the previous game, and 4-1 in their last 5 games after a win of 14 points or more. Their O/U trends are 1-4 in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in the previous game, 1-4 in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in the previous game, and 20-44 in their last 64 games after scoring more than 30 points in the previous game. They also stand 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Patriots.
New England is 4-0 ATS in their last 5 games after gaining less than 90 rushing yards in the previous game, 6-1 in their last 7 games on field-turf, and 36-16-2 in their last 54 games overall. Their O/U trends are 2-6 in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record, 3-7 in their last 10 games following an ATS loss, and 1-4 in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in the previous game. The two teams also share an O/U trend of 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against each other.
The Eagles completely dominated the Vikings two Sundays ago 38-7 to win the NFC Championship. They outgained the Vikings 333 total yards (70 yards for rushing) with their own 456 total yards (110 yards for rushing) and won 3 turnovers off of the Vikings while giving up 0 themselves. New England won their AFC Championship game 24-20 over Jacksonville two Sundays ago as well. They were outgained by the Jaguars 374 total yards (101 rushing yards) to their own 344 total yards (46 rushing yards) and even lost a turnover to Jacksonville but still came out on top thanks to the heroics of Tom Brady.
Our Free NFL Pick: Rob Gronkowski suffered a concussion in the AFC Championship game but was confirmed to be fine and practising this week so expect to see him in the Super Bowl. Now, while the odds do look overwhelming in the favor of New England winning this Super Bowl as well, the Eagles chances do rely a lot on just how the defence can handle Gronkowski and Brady. Their pass rush is definitely great with their front 4 but the problem lies in who is to handle the 6’6 giant that is Gronkowski. Their linebackers are decent but their safetys and secondaries are lacking, so it is a very worrying thing on how they’ll handle Gronk. Another thing that they’ll have to be wary of is Bill Belichick who would’ve definitely study Nick Foles’ plays extensively against Minnesota. That means that the countless RPOs Doug Peterson allowed Foles to run in that game might now work here against Belichick as easily, a man who’s much more well renown for his coaching talent. I definitely still believe they can come away with the win here but if you look at it fairly? The edge lies with New England. That’s not saying I’m personally not hoping for an upset though.